The national picture
One score, widely separated outcomes
In the 2024 Main Residency Match, matched U.S. MD seniors had a mean Step 2 CK score of 250.4 (SD 13.2). The overall U.S. MD senior PGY-1 match rate was 93.5% in both 2024 and the 2025 Match (20,368 active U.S. MD seniors; placement including SOAP 97.8%) — and the U.S. MD senior match rate has held in the 92–95% range since 1982 (source: NRMP, 2025 Main Residency Match results). The aggregate is reassuring; the specialty-level picture is where score bands separate.
Program directors confirmed the exam's weight in the 2024 NRMP Program Director Survey: the Step 2 CK score was the 4th most frequently considered factor when deciding whom to interview, 30% of programs required MD applicants to hit a target Step 2 CK score for an interview (36% for IMGs, 22% for DOs), and 77% consider failed Step attempts when interviewing (via ama-assn.org and ama-assn.org).
Read the caveats — they are the page
- Population: U.S. MD seniors in the 2024 Main Residency Match who consented to research use (16,054 of 19,755 who submitted rank lists). Step 2 CK scores available for 98.4%; ~85% of scores school-verified.
- "Match" means matched to the preferred specialty — the specialty of the applicant's first-ranked program — not matched anywhere.
- These are observed match rates per score band (matched ÷ [matched + unmatched] within the band), extracted from the report's per-specialty distribution charts. They are not predicted probabilities for any individual, and they are not the report's logistic-regression probability curves (those use pooled 2022–2024 data and are published as graphs only — curve values aren't extractable).
- Bands with small n are directional only. Cells marked † have fewer than 20 people in the band; treat those percentages as noise-prone.
- Overall specialty rates are the report's official Chart 3 "percent matched by preferred specialty."
- No 2026 edition exists yet (biennial series; the next edition covering the 2026 Match was not published as of 2026-09-30).
Five specialties, six score bands
Observed match % by Step 2 CK score band (2024 Match, U.S. MD seniors)
Five representative specialties — from less score-sensitive to highly score-sensitive — showing the observed percentage of applicants in each Step 2 CK score band who matched to their preferred specialty, with the band's sample size in parentheses. Scroll sideways on mobile.
| Score band |
Pediatrics
overall 99.7% |
Internal Medicine
overall 97.8% |
General Surgery
overall 81.8% |
Orthopaedic Surgery
overall 73.1% |
Dermatology
overall 70.5% |
| 211–220 |
97.0% (33) |
82.3% (62) |
23.8% (21) |
0.0% (7)† |
37.5% (8)† |
| 221–230 |
100% (124) |
91.1% (214) |
42.9% (70) |
27.3% (22) |
28.6% (14)† |
| 231–240 |
100% (208) |
97.3% (409) |
64.5% (155) |
47.4% (78) |
60.0% (30) |
| 241–250 |
99.7% (304) |
98.6% (714) |
85.9% (227) |
65.2% (178) |
65.9% (88) |
| 251–260 |
100% (308) |
99.4% (808) |
92.6% (296) |
80.4% (235) |
71.5% (137) |
| >260 |
100% (219) |
99.5% (828) |
94.9% (256) |
89.9% (257) |
82.3% (158) |
† Fewer than 20 people in the band — directional only. "Overall" = the report's official Chart 3 percent matched to preferred specialty. Percentages are observed within-band match rates, not predicted probabilities.
Reading the patterns
What the table is actually saying
- Some specialties barely respond to score. Pediatrics (overall 99.7%) and internal medicine (overall 97.8%) reached 90%+ observed match rates at relatively modest bands — pediatrics was already at 97% in the 211–220 band, and internal medicine crossed 90% at 221–230.
- Some specialties respond strongly and continuously. In orthopaedic surgery, the observed rate rose from 0% at 211–220 to 89.9% above 260 — and never reached 90%. Dermatology shows the same shape: even above 260, the observed rate was 82.3% (overall 70.5%). Score helps in these fields; it doesn't guarantee anything.
- General surgery is the clearest gradient. From 23.8% at 211–220 to 94.9% above 260, each band is meaningfully better than the last — the observed rate first reaches 90% in the 251–260 band.
- The low bands of competitive specialties are real data about real applicants. People with scores in the 210s–220s applied to orthopaedics and dermatology; most did not match those specialties. That isn't a verdict on their careers — but it is honest information to bring to an advising conversation.
This is data journalism, not advising. These are population-level observations from one match year. They cannot tell you your probability of matching — no one can, and be skeptical of anyone who claims to. The right use of this table is as context for a conversation with your school advisor, who can weigh it alongside your whole application. A low score band is never the whole story, and a high band is never a guarantee.
Sources
Where the numbers come from
- Charting Outcomes in the Match: Characteristics of U.S. MD Seniors Who Matched to Their Preferred Specialty, 2024 Main Residency Match — 4th Edition. National Resident Matching Program, Washington DC, August 2024. PDF: Charting_Outcomes_MD_Seniors_2024-2.pdf. Report hub: nrmp.org. Interactive Step 2 CK explorer: nrmp.org.
- 2025 Main Residency Match results (93.5% U.S. MD senior PGY-1 match rate; 97.8% placement with SOAP): nrmp.org.
- 2024 NRMP Program Director Survey findings, via ama-assn.org and ama-assn.org.
- Note: ophthalmology is not in NRMP Charting Outcomes (it matches through SF Match, not NRMP) — no NRMP data is quoted for it here.